Sports Betting Podcast 1-17-2013 with Handicappers Brent Crow, Sammy P, and Teddy Covers | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Tags: NFL NHL College Basketball Brent Crow Sammy P Teddy Covers | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
NCAA Basketball Betting Free Play: South Dakota State Jackrabbits at Western Illinois Leathernecks | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Submitted by Andrew LangeSouth Dakota State at Western Illinois -2.5? Recommendation: Western Illinois You think Western Illinois has had tonight's game against South Dakota State circled? Last year, the Jackrabbits not only beat the Leathernecks three times but one of those games was by single point and the other was in overtime in the Summit League Championship game. WIU is an experienced team with a decent home court. You go back to last year and three of their conference losses in Macomb were by 1 (vs. SDSU), 1 (double OT) and 4 (double OT). This season, they are a perfect 8-0 at rinky-dink Western Hall and tonight marks arguably the biggest game the program has had under Jim Molinari. South Dakota State is a good team as seen by road wins at Montana and New Mexico. But there were also some bad losses, most notably at Hofstra and at South Dakota. Defensively is where these two teams differ. SDSU has had difficulty at times whereas WIU puts much more emphasis on stopping the opposition. And the blueprint is out there for how to beat SDSU ? slow down the pace of the game. Of the Jackrabbits' five slowest games, they lost three of them and won the other two by a single point each. In last year's title game, WIU held SDSU star Nate Wolters to 5-22 shooting. The difference was WIU shot 2-6 from the free throw line while SDSU was 7-9. Look for the home side to come away with a revenge-minded win tonight.? Tags: College Basketball Western Illinois Leathernecks South Dakota State Jackrabbits Andrew Lange | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
NFL Gambling Trends: Conference Championships in Domed Stadiums | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Submitted by Otto SportsLet?s take a look at AFC and NFC Championship history since 2000 when games are played in domes. It seems like the old adage of the indoor stadium being a fast track has held true, even in a most pressurized sense of playoff football! All five contests went OVER the total. The total for Sunday's NFC Championship in Atlanta was bet up from an opener of 47 to 49.
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NFL Handicapping: Why The Atlanta Falcons are +4 | |||
| Submitted by Stat Intelligence There?s a growing chorus in the handicapping/betting world that the line has over-adjusted in Sunday?s San Francisco/Atlanta matchup for the NFC Championship?with little apparent justification for the current number of San Francisco -4. Let?s review a few keys. *Sharps aren?t betting the 49ers at -4. But, they sure loved them at a field goal or less. It?s hard to know for sure from the outside how much of the moves beyond the three can be linked to sharp sentiment or square sentiment (the public). What?s clear is that sharps weren?t thinking the line should be pick-em or -1. Sharps had the 49ers at least 6 or 6.5 points better on a neutral field. Sharps stopped betting the Niners at a number that represented 7 points better on a neutral field. *The advanced analytic stuff I?ve seen around the web supports that passion at an affordable price. Measures are showing that San Francisco has a much better offense when you adjust for schedule strength, and a much better defense. I?m not aware of any places disagreeing with that. Send me a link if you find one and I?ll post it (@jefffogle on twitter). *If you use the NON-advanced stats that don?t adjust for schedule strength, and don?t account for how more dangerous San Francisco became with Kaepernick than with Alex Smith at quarterback midway through the sampling, you STILL get: Offensive Yards-Per-Carry: SF #2, Atlanta #29 Offensive Yards-Per-Pass Attempt: SF #3, Atlanta #8 Defensive YPC Allowed: SF #3, Atlanta #29 Defensive YPA Allowed: SF #2, Atlanta #20 Again, that?s BEFORE giving the Niners credit for facing a much tougher schedule and upgrading at quarterback. *There?s a theory that the market overreacted to the Falcons second-half collapse last week, because a projected line for SF/Atlanta at halftime of Seattle/Atlanta was only showing 49ers by -1.5. You could interpret it that way. Well, logical reaction or over-reaction, take your pick! But, what?s also possible is that those in the know found a confirmation of their earlier skepticism about Atlanta in the postseason. Remember that most sharps entered Seattle/Atlanta impressed with the Seahawks because of their great numbers in the second half of the season, and skeptical of Atlanta because of a soft schedule this year AND a very poor recent playoff history. Atlanta?s great first half last Sunday could have been taken to mean that past playoff issues were behind them. The lousy second half could be seen as ?well, I guess not, you still can?t count on Atlanta in the playoffs.? Prior postseason results in the Matt Ryan Era Last year: Atlanta (+3) lost to the NY Giants 24-2 (missed by 19 points) 2 years ago: Atlanta (-1) lost to Green Bay 48-21 (missed by 28 points) 4 years ago: Atlanta (+1.5) lost to Arizona 30-24 (missed by 4.5 points) Atlanta had the superior regular season won-lost record in all three of those meetings, yet couldn?t perform near expectations. At an average line of about +1 per game (virtual toss-ups), Atlanta was outscored 102-47. Is the market overreacting to last week?s second half, or confirming that this Atlanta regime is simply overmatched when they have to step up in class? The Falcons jumped out to a big start last week with the help of a bye, an opponent in a bad body clock spot, and an opponent that had just lost a key defensive player. And they still gave back all of their huge lead anyway! Atlanta can definitely win Sunday and go to the Super Bowl. But, if you?re going to invest in them?the stats say you?re basically taking the team with the lesser offense, the lesser defense, and the lesser head coach in terms of schematic balance. You?re taking a rush defense that ranked #28 out of 32 teams in yards allowed per carry (4.8)? and #24 in rushing TD?s allowed (16) even though they faced a very easy schedule?and you?re asking them to stop Gore inside and Kaepernick on the wings (both rushed for over 100 yards last week vs. GB). In essence, you?re hoping to catch some breaks, maybe with turnovers or other poor decisions from a relatively inexperienced quarterback in front of a loud crowd (albeit a QB who just beat New England on the road a few weeks ago!). But, you?re hoping to catch those breaks with a team that?s been exposed as a pretender the last three times they made the playoffs. That?s why the Falcons are +4 at the moment even though they?re the home team. We?ll see what the Vegas line does between now and kickoff. If you missed the earlier NBA report on an inverted way to think about back-to-backs, you can read that here. Thanks again for being a blog reader! Stat Intelligence: Inverted Thinking on NBA Back-to-Backs Tags: NFL Atlanta Falcons San Francisco 49ers Stat Intelligence | |||
College Basketball Betting: BYU's struggles against strong competition continue | |||
| Submitted by Andrew LangeLast night, BYU lost on a buzzer beater to St. Mary's, 70-69. It marked yet another failed attempt for the Cougars to pick up a marquee victory. Over the last two seasons, BYU has had an incredibly difficult time stepping up in class. Check out the results against St. Mary's and Gonzaga... BYU -5 vs. St. Mary's - 70-69 Loss? That's 1-5 SU/ATS. And if we include better than average power conference teams, there are even more failures. 2012-13? 2011-12? If we stretch the parameters a little, there were SU/ATS wins against Oregon (infant stages of Dana Altman's first season) and at Virginia Tech (Hokies finished 16-17). Still, BYU's track record against strong competition is downright awful. In those 13 aforementioned games, BYU has exactly ONE win and ONE spread cover. And if you look at the line history, all of those games were competitively lined yet 10 of the 12 losses were by double-digits. The Cougars still have three regular season games remaining against St. Mary's and Gonzaga. Tags: College Basketball BYU Cougars Andrew Lange | |||
Proposed Las Vegas stadium an ideal fit for NFL games/team | |||
| So Las Vegas wants to build some sort of "Mega Events Center" similar to that of Cowboys Stadium. If built, said facility would obviously have the capabilities to host football games. What's funny is that those backing the plan aren't asking the NFL to do something logical like pull the plug on Jacksonville or go the expansion route. Instead, they're starting small, like playing host to a preseason game, or the pro bowl. If that works and Bill Belichick and Tom Brady aren?t involved in some elaborate point shaving scandal, then maybe the NFL would warm up to the idea of placing? a franchise in Sin City. The odds on that happening? Not good, according to some.Tags: Las Vegas NFL | |||
College Basketbal Betting Free Play: NC State Wolfpack at Maryland Terrapins | |||
| Submitted by Andrew LangeNC State at Maryland -1.5 O/U 149? Recommendation: Over Maryland has not been shy about its desire to play up-tempo with both home games in ACC play hitting the 70 possessions mark. And tonight, the Terps have talked about making a change at the point guard position, putting Nick Faust in place of the offensively inept Pe'Shon Howard. The Terps are searching for a spark, and Faust may just oblige, allowing Maryland to work a little faster offensively. Since Faust doesn?t know all the set plays at point guard, teammate Logan Aronhalt said, the Terps might adjust with more quick-hitters, searching for easy, fast buckets. NC State is in no way an elite level defense. In half of the Wolfpack's games, they've allowed 1.03 points per possession or more. Check out these outputs from opposing teams: Duke 76, Georgia Tech 70, Boston College 73, Stanford 79, Michigan 79, Oklahoma State 76, UMass 76, and UNC Asheville 80. And NC State won six of those eight games in part because they have one of the best offenses in the country. They average 1.19 ppp, shoot 57.5% eFG, 56.8% from 2, and 40% from three. And they've been consistent about it too because they make a point of scoring in transition and not settling for three-pointers. And where would you grade Maryland's defense out of those eight aforementioned teams that the Wolfpack averaged nearly 80 ppg against? The Terps certainly don't defend like Duke, Michigan or Oklahoma State. Unless this game bogs down late or the refs swallow the whistle, I find it hard to imagine a scenario with less than 70 possessions. I think Maryland bounces back off of its 47-point showing at slow paced and defensive-minded Miami and keeps pace with NC State on the scoreboard. Play it over.? Tags: College Basketball NC State Wolfpack Maryland Terrapins Andrew Lange | |||
College Basketball Betting: Fresno State leaning heavily on freshmen in tough Mountain West | |||
| Submitted by Rob VenoThere have been times this season Fresno State's men's basketball team has had three and even four freshmen on the floor at the same time. That?s a tough way to go in the Mountain West, which is rated the second (Sagarin) or third (RPIratings.com) toughest conference in the country. Coach Rodney Terry knows this, often using the refrain, "It's not going to happen overnight." The youth and inexperience may have cost FSU a win in the final minutes at No. 16 San Diego State last week. Four freshmen have logged a total of 1,010 minutes already and it could be more, considering guard Marvelle Harris (373 minutes) has played 20 minutes or less four times, center Robert Upshaw (234 minutes) missed the first three games coming back from a knee injury, point guard Aaron Anderson (224 minutes) didn't make his first start until the 12th game of the season, and forward/center Tanner Giddings (179 minutes) did not play in one game and logged less than 10 minutes in five others. Fresno State is getting more than twice as many minutes from freshman than any other Mountain West school except for UNLV. While 82.4% of the Rebels freshman minutes have been allocated to highly touted five star recruit Anthony Bennett and four star recruit Katin Reinhardt, the Bulldogs are the only team with 175 or more minutes from four freshmen.? UNLV: 1,179 minutes from freshmen, 34.4%.? Follow me on Twitter @robveno1 Tags: College Basketball Fresno State Bulldogs Rob Veno Mountain West | |||
NBA Betting: Los Angeles Clippers Pass, Houston Rockets Flunk Battle of Gut Checks | |||
| Submitted by Stat Intelligence Tuesday night?s LA Clippers/Houston Rockets game was very important for NBA analysts because it represented a ?battle of the gut checks.? *The Clippers were on night two of a road back-to-back, after blowing out Memphis Monday night. And, they were playing once again without star point guard Chris Paul. *The Rockets were starting up their second four-game-in-five-night challenge within a two-week period, knowing it was imperative to get a home win before going on the road the rest of the week. LA Clippers 117, Houston 109 Two-Point Pct: LA Clippers 53%, Houston 62% Three-Pointers: LA Clippers 11/19, Houston 13/37 Free Throws: LA Clippers 22/26, Houston 14/25 Rebounds: LA Clippers 35, Houston 34 Turnovers: LA Clippers 16, Houston 15 Not exactly a defensive struggle. You can see the signs of fatigue in those two-point shooting categories. Neither stop unit put up much of a fight inside the paint. The Clippers were clearly getting a lot of open looks to nail that kind of trey percentage too. The final score makes it seem closer than the second half truly was. The Clippers exploded in the third quarter, using a 28-11 run to turn a one-point halftime deficit into an 86-70 advantage. They would lead by as many as 21 in the fourth quarter. And, the Clippers were still up by 15 with 1:45 to go before the Rockets closed on a 6-0 garbage time run. The wire services are making a big deal about the Clippers reaching the 30-win milestone for the season already. Since, that was NEVER IN DOUBT, it?s fairly trivial. I?m more impressed by 21-3 the last 24. And, the Western Conference as a whole should be trembling that the Clippers could score such EASY wins ON THE ROAD against likely PLAYOFF teams WITHOUT CHRIS PAUL on BACK-TO-BACK NIGHTS! Which tells you more about the current quality and mindset of that team?? Reaching a milestone they were going to get to easily anyway, or squashing bugs in a two-game challenge that many contenders would have coasted through because discretion is the better part of valor. The legal betting markets sure missed the boat: LA Clippers (+4) beat Memphis 99-73 (30-point cover) LA Clippers (+3) beat Houston 117-109 (11-point cover) They don?t give out trophies for being the Kings of January. There?s obviously a danger of peaking too early. Right now?this is something special that should be getting more media run than it has. The media is befuddled because they?re ?Chris Paul has this team hitting on all cylinders? storyline when the cylinders kept getting hit even without him! From the Rockets perspective, big trouble after that recent very hot run. It?s like the wheels fell off right at the start of the fourth quarter of last week?s game at New Orleans. Houston (-2) lost at New Orleans 88-79 (missing by 11, with 29-10 fourth quarter loss) Houston (+3) lost at Boston 103-91 (missing by 9) Houston (+1) lost at Philadelphia 107-100 (missing by 6) Houston (-3) lost to the LA Clippers 117-109 (missing by 11) And, check out the poor inside defense in the last three: Boston shot 32 of 56 on two-pointers for 57% Philadelphia 37 of 69 on two-pointers for 54% LAC shot 31 of 59 on two-pointers for 53% One of the biggest dangers of pushing tempo all the time on offense is that it eventually wears out your own defense. Houston may be feeling the effects of that right in the midst of this challenging fatigue sequence. Still ahead for Houston this week: at Dallas Wednesday, at Indiana Friday, at Minnesota Saturday, at Charlotte Monday. Stat Intelligence discusses the Kentucky Mystery Stat Intelligence runs the numbers from Wisconsin's shocker at Indiana Tags: NBA Los Angeles Clippers Houston Rockets Stat Intelligence | |||
NBA Handicapping: Atlanta Hawks looks to bounce back after 58-point performance | |||
| Brooklyn at Atlanta -3 O/U 187.5 Atlanta's last game wasn't pretty ? a reoccurring theme over the last two weeks (1-6 SU/ATS run). Today the organization decided to suspend Josh Smith for conduct detrimental to the team. So what can we expect for tonight's game against red hot Brooklyn? A database search shows teams that scored 60 point or fewer are 13-12 SU and 14-11 ATS in their next outing dating back to 1999. The stronger trend though looks to be with totals with seven straight contests going OVER. Tags: NBA Atlanta Hawks Brooklyn Nets | |||
Sports Betting Podcast 1-16-2013 with Handicappers Brent Crow, Ian Cameron, and Erin Rynning | |||
| Tags: College Basketball NBA Brent Crow Ian Cameron Erin Rynning | |||
College Basketball Betting: Illinois State winless in Missouri Valley play | |||
| Illinois State at Wichita State -9.5 It's been a baffling season for Illinois State. Close losses to Northwestern and Louisville, a road win over Dayton, and now five straight losses to open Missouri Valley play. All five contests were fairly close; decided by 2, 7, 10, 7, and 5 points. Now it doesn't look like Tyler Brown (15.3 ppg) will play. According to Sports Options, he'll remain suspended for tonight's game at Wichita State. And to make matters worse, the Shockers are off a rare loss and welcome back the services of their best player, Carl Hall, who missed time due to a thumb injury.? Tags: College Basketball Illinois State Redbirds Wichita State Shockers | |||
NCAA Basketball Gambling: BYU's Carlino leaves practice with bum back | |||
| St. Mary's at BYU -6 O/U 153 Keep an eye on BYU guard Matt Carlino's status for tonight's matchup against St. Mary's. He left yesterday's practice with back spasms. Carlino has been in fine form of late. After failing to top double-digits in five straight games, he posted 21, 22, 13, and 13 respectively over his last four. The Gaels beat the Cougars in both meetings last year including an 80-66 romp in Provo. Tags: College Basketball BYU Cougars St. Mary's Gaels | |||
College Basketball Handicapping: Scoring has been down nation-wide | |||
| It looks like scoring in college basketball is on pace for an historical low this season. Since 1952, only once have we seen the national average below 68 ppg. We're currently at that mark with it expected to dip now that conference play is underway. There are some theories. One would be departures to the NBA ? something that has been taking place for years. Next, and this makes a little more sense, is technology with teams able to quickly and efficiently put together film on the opposition. Due to the crazy totals market it's hard to get an accurate number on nation-wide results. One site claims 53.5% of games have gone under the total in regulation. "There's so much more film now than there was when I first started in the mid 1990s," Groce said Monday on the Big Ten teleconference. "I could go right now to the office and say, 'I want every underneath out-of-bounds play that Northwestern ran in the last 30 games,' and my video guy could get me that in 15 minutes. "There are a lot of really good coaches out there, and everyone's trying to take things away. There's more video than there's ever been. Maybe that has to do with some of the scoring." ?Tags: College Basketball | |||
College Basketball Betting: Colorado holds players-only meeting | |||
| Colorado at Washington -2 Since the start of PAC-12 play, the hot topic for Colorado has been its supposed lack of "mental toughness." The Buffaloes had it during regulation against Arizona but lost it in overtime. It was nowhere to be seen in the loss to Arizona State whereas against Southern Cal, present and accounted for. UCLA at home? Not the last five minutes as the Bruins snuck away with a 78-75 win in Boulder. We?re detecting a pattern ? win and we?re tough, lose and we?re a JV squad. Now we're having a players-only meeting to combat this supposed lack of testicular fortitude. From our perspective we see a team that is capable but very young and inconsistent, hence four straight relatively close games; three of which happen to go the way of the opposition. If Colorado doesn?t get scammed against Arizona and makes one more play down the stretch to beat UCLA, we?d be reading about ?maturity? and ?team chemistry.? We're to the point now where it almost seems as if all this ?tough talk? is counterproductive. College basketball it littered with random outcomes and when the ball does start to bounce CU?s way know that they just happen to make a few more shots and stops on that particular night not because of the ?huge boost? from a players-only meeting. "It's called mental toughness and that's one thing we're trying to get right," Roberson said. "The Navy Seals did help us a little bit at the beginning of the season, but I feel like we're kind of losing it a little bit and we need to try to get it refreshed back in our memories." "With all that being said, it's a fine, fine line as to why we are where we are," Boyle said. "It's not like our offense is broken or our defense is not good enough. We're not doing the little things consistently enough to win close games or to put ourselves in position where we're up six or eight points coming down the stretch." ?Tags: College Basketball Colorado Buffaloes Washington Huskies | |||
NBA Gambling News: Atlanta Hawks sport league-worst 14-23 ATS record | |||
| In case you missed it, check out this dandy of a box score. And when your coach can't put his finger on what's wrong, it suggests things aren't going to get better overnight. Time to bust out the obligatory lineup change! ?The disturbing thing is the effort part,? Drew said. ?I shouldn?t have to come out and coach effort every single night. Effort is something that they should bring. They are being paid to bring effort every single night. Maybe it?s the chemistry right now. I don?t know but I?m going to have to do something to jump start us because right now we have flat-lined. Not just from a physical standpoint. Mentally, we have flat-lined and I?ve got to find a way to resuscitate this team.? ?Tags: NBA Atlanta Hawks | |||
Alf Musketa's PGA Betting Preview: Humana Challenge at Palm Springs | |||
| Submitted by Alf MusketaAlf?s off to a 4-0 +4.35 unit start to the PGA Season. You can get on board with all of Alf?s golf selections through October for only $599. Click here for more details. This week the PGA Tour heads to the main land and the Palm Springs, California area for the Humana Challenge in partnership with the Clinton Foundation. Yes, that is the official name of the event. Former President William J. Clinton has teamed with the Humana Foundation and is the unofficial host of what use to be the Bob Hope Desert Classic. Last week he played in the "Birdies for the Brave" which was hosted by Phil Mickelson and thus, Mickelson is making his season debut this week. Last year was the first time this event switched to four rounds instead of the popular five round pro-am format.? | |||
NBA Handicapping: Minnesota's lack of defense leads to 4-10 ATS slide | |||
| The Minnesota Timberwolves went from playing great defense to not playing a lick of defense over the course of the last month. It's resulted in a 4-10 SU/ATS slide. Good read at NBA.com on some of the theories behind the regression. The T-wolves play host to the?Clippers on Thursday.Tags: NBA Minnesota Timberwolves | |||
NBA Handicapper Free Pick: New Orleans Hornets at Philadelphia 76ers | |||
| Submitted by Teddy CoversNew Orleans +3 at Philadelphia O/U 184? Recommendation: New Orleans This is a tale of two teams headed in opposite directions right now.? Forget New Orleans' 11-26 full season record ? it?s meaningless.? The Hornets got star shooting guard Eric Gordon and #1 overall draft pick Anthony Davis back in the lineup and they?ve started to win. First the Hornets knocked off Dallas in Dallas.? Then they beat the red hot Spurs, a team playing as well as any in the league through the first two and half months of the season.? They rallied from a double-digit deficit at the end of three quarters to knock off the Rockets, and rallied from another double digit deficit to beat Minnesota.? The key in all four games was defense and rebounding ? New Orleans won the rebounding battle each time and held all three opponents to 92 points or less in regulation.? But New Orleans played poorly against the Knicks at Madison Square Garden on Sunday, making this a prime bounce-back spot for an undervalued commodity in the betting markets right now. Head coach Monty Williams: ?We just didn't play with a sense of urgency. After winning four games in a row, I thought our guys kind of rested on the fact they need to show up."? Expect a better effort here! Meanwhile, the Sixers are slumping badly.? Forget Philly?s season long 16-22 record.? Doug Collins? squad started the season with a 10-6 mark.? Since the beginning of December, they are just 6-16; a bottom feeder, not a contender.? The Sixers snapped a five game skid with a win over Houston on Saturday, but they are 0-6 SU following a win during their current slide.? Look for that streak to continue tonight!? ? Tags: NBA New Orleans Hornets Philadelphia 76ers Teddy Covers | |||
College Basketball Handicapping: Louisville Cardinals win again with defense | |||
| Submitted by Stat Intelligence It?s time for our semi-annual reminder that Rick Pitino is one of the best defensive coaches in college basketball. The media is doing a better job of recognizing this. But, the sentiment you?re hearing now is about how great THIS particular Louisville defense is?rather than how great Louisville is on defense every year. Ken Pomeroy?s adjusted defensive ratings?which account for both tempo and quality of opposition?currently have Louisville as the #1 defense in the country. Just like last year! ? 2012-13: #1 heading into win over 73-58 win over Connecticut 2011-12: #1 2010-11: #4 2009-10: #79 2008-09: #2 2007-08: #5 2006-07: #16 2005-06: #36 2004-05: #14 2003-04: #26 Now?on that chart, #79 looks like a disaster. Kenpom rates more than 300 teams! ?Pretty good? is a worst case scenario for a Pitino coached team. Elite is much more common. Heading into the 2012-13 campaign, we were looking at four top five finishes in the last five years. The current pace suggests five in the last six is in the offing. I know you?ve been hearing for years that Pitino focuses on offense. Once upon a time?he was the pace happy, trey happy coach who didn?t quite live up to hopes in the NBA. Since returning to the college game, he?s been creating dominating defenses that have gone unnoticed for far too long. The media is finally noticing. They should have noticed in 2004. It should have been one of the sports dominant storylines of the last 10 years. *You know Jim Boeheim coaches a tricky zone at Syracuse *You know John Calipari is a great recruiter wherever he?s been *You know Brad Stevens is a great tactician at Butler Rick Pitino should be linked to great defenses the way those men are linked to their storylines. Or the way Nick Saban is to great football defenses at Alabama. (Current Power Ratings and adjusted stat rankings from Ken Pomeroy can be found here)? Tonight?s numbers? Louisville 73, Connecticut 58 Two-Point Pct: Louisville 56%, Connecticut 44% Three-Pointers: Louisville 4/13, Connecticut 8/22 Free Throws: Louisville 11/15, Connecticut 8/13 Rebounds: Louisville 33, Connecticut 25 Turnovers: Louisville 13, Connecticut 16 This was far from a shut-down by Louisville standards. But, they didn?t put Connecticut on the line for many freebies. They forced 16 turnovers in a game that wasn?t run-and-gun. They owned the boards, only allowing Connecticut 7 offensive rebounds while grabbing 23 defensive rebounds themselves. Most importantly, when the game was on the line, they DID clamp down. Halftime: Connecticut 34, Louisville 28 Third 10 Minutes: Louisville 19, Connecticut 7 Final 10 Minutes: Louisville 26, Connecticut 14 A stranglehold after the intermission, then containment during garbage time. Louisville moves to 16-1 with the win, 4-0 in the Big East. And, they do so in impressive fashion as a road favorite against a team that just looked fantastic in a road win at Notre Dame this past Saturday. For those of you playing the markets, Louisville is 7-3 ATS their last 10 games, with one of the non-covers coming by half a point in an 18-point win. The game everyone is waiting for vs. #6 Syracuse comes up Saturday afternoon. You?ll definitely want to pay close attention to that one because both teams will be prominent on TV over the next couple of months. Remember to keep Pitino's defensive prowess on your radar in all of the marquee matchups ahead.? In the Big Monday nightcap on ESPN, we had more defense!? Kansas 61, Baylor 44 Two-Point Pct: Baylor 21%, Kansas 43% Three-Pointers: Baylor 4/14, Kansas 3/14 Free Throws: Baylor 14/23, Kansas 12/16 Rebounds: Baylor 37, Kansas 41 Turnovers: Baylor 14, Kansas 14 Isaiah Austin of Baylor was 6 of 15 from the field. Everyone else was 7 of 41. Kansas continued the shooting problems they?ve been having from long range, but did enough in other facets to coast to victory. There?s a lot of ugly basketball at the college level these days. Get ready for a rough and tumble road to the Big Dance. For the latest Stat Intelligence post on the NBA, click here? | |||
Sportsmemo Handicapper Sammy P gears up for another big NHL season | |||
| Tags: College Basketball Louisville Cardinals Stat Intelligence | |||
Mountain West Betting News and Notes 1-15-2013 | |||
| Submitted by Rob VenoWyoming Suspends Second-Leading Scorer Luke Martinez Luke Martinez has been suspended indefinitely from the Wyoming basketball team as the result of a bar fight last month that left him with a broken finger. According to the Star-Tribune, there were charges filed against Martinez this weekend as a result of the incident. Martinez is the second-leading scorer for the Cowboys, a team that remained undefeated until last week and that has set themselves up nicely for a run at an NCAA tournament berth. There is no doubt that this injury ? and the suspension ? puts a dent into those plans. Head coach?Larry Shyatt has said that Martinez will not return to the team until the legal system has taken its course. For now, the Cowboys are going with a starting lineup consisting of three point guards and a pair of big men in Leonard Washington and Larry Nance Jr. Nevada Head Coach and Top Player Vent Frustrations In its 59-48 loss to Wyoming before an announced crowd of 6,282 fans, Nevada was tagged with its third straight double-digit loss. For the second time in three games, its offense was awful. After the game, a clearly frustrated David Carter said his team needs to show more heart, more guts and somebody other than Deonte Burton needs to step up and start making some plays. ?On the offensive end, it?s really though,? the coach said. ?When you?re not shooting the ball well and you call a play and get the look you want, get a guy driving to the lane and he misses, then it?s very frustrating. Now, it looks like your offense isn?t working. Now, it looks like you?re panicking. ?We have to go back and guys have to get confidence in themselves. I told them, ?You?re playing the game. I can draw up the play, but you have to have the guts to step up and make a shot.?? The Wolf Pack made just 29 percent of its shots ? the second time in three games it has shot below 30 percent ? and sank just 1-of-15 3-pointers. Typically a strong free-throw shooting team, Nevada made just 11-of-24 from the stripe. The team also missed several layups. Burton, the only member of the team allowed to talk to the media after the game, made 8-of-13 shots and scored 23 points. The rest of the team was 10-of-49 for 25 points. Nevada outrebounded Wyoming, 48-31, and grabbed 23 offensive boards but still fell by double digits. Asked if he was frustrated, Burton said yes. Asked if his team lacked confidence, he said yes. ?Especially down low,? Burton said. ?Those guys are getting point-blank layups and just rushing them a little bit. Maybe they?re nervous or maybe they?re rushing too much, but we have to get those shots to go down. I have to stay positive with them. As the team?s point guard and leader, I have to keep talking to them, like, ?It?s all right. You?re going to get it going.?? Air Force Trying To Stay Focused Air Force left for home wondering where it all went wrong. Las Vegas can do that to anyone. The task confronting the Falcons now is to make sure that what happened in Vegas stays in Vegas. ?You have to put it behind you,? said senior forward Mike Fitzgerald, who narrowly missed a chance to beat No. 24 UNLV with a 3-pointer just before the regulation buzzer. ?That?s what?s so tough about conference play is in two or three more days we?re playing again. You?ve just got to focus on the good things and use them for the next game.? The Runnin? Rebels did all they could to hand Air Force (9-5, 1-1 Mountain West) what would have been one of their biggest road victories in school history. UNLV missed 12 second-half free throws. It shot 24 percent from 3-point range. It gave Fitzgerald an open look to win it. The Falcons couldn?t seize it, and it?s one that could stew if the team isn?t careful. ?It?s going to be hard, and that?s our job as a coaching staff and my job as a head coach to lead this program,? said Dave Pilipovich, a longtime assistant who is in his first full year as a head coach at any level. ?We have to make sure they stay positive and keep working on them and get to the point where we have another opportunity like this.? Evidence suggests Air Force could have these kind of opportunities often. The Falcons have been competitive in every game with the exception of a loss at Richmond that came at the end of a long road trip and against a team that opened on fire from 3-point range. Colorado State?s Larry Eustachy Vows To Change Culture CSU showed a lot of resiliency storming back from a 41-23 halftime deficit at San Diego State on Saturday night to tie the game 63-63 and force overtime. From there, the Rams were outscored 16-9 and the 79-72 loss had head coach Larry Eustachy pretty aggravated. "You've got to get stops; we couldn't stop Tapley," said CSU coach Larry Eustachy, whose team snapped a seven-game win streak. "We just didn't make the plays, and I'm not used to it." "We have to change the culture here at Colorado State; we have to change the culture," Eustachy said. "I'm not sure if the players expected to come out here and win or not, but not being able to finish off the game is not how we're going to do it. We're used to it, this is what we've accepted, and it's no longer acceptable." The Rams lost out on a golden opportunity to pick up a huge win to add to their NCAA Tournament resume, one in which currently lacks a victory over an RPI top 50 team. "On the road you're not going to get the calls, it's not going to be easy, but players just have to make plays at the end of the day," said senior guard Wes Eikmeier, whose team hosts Air Force on Wednesday. "We got to have some toughness to buckle down and make the plays to win the game; they did and we didn't." Follow me on Twitter @robveno1? Tags: College Basketball Wyoming Cowboys Air Force Falcons Colorado State Rams Nevada Wolf Pack Rob Veno | |||
Sports Betting Podcast 1-15-2013 with Handicappers Sammy P, Rob Veno, and Alf Musketa | |||
| Tags: NHL College Basketball NBA Sammy P Rob Veno Alf Musketa | |||
NFL Handicapping: Atlanta Falcons become a more attractive teaser bet at +10.5 | |||
| With San Francisco now at -4.5 vs. Atlanta it gives bettors the option of teasing the Falcons up to +10.5 (crossing the key numbers of +6, +7, and +10). Over the last 12 NFL conference championships, using a 6-point teaser on the underdog resulted in an 11-1 record. 6-point underdog tease? | |||
NFL Gambling Update: For a second straight day, betting markets poound 49ers | |||
Fresh off Sunday's move from?-3 to -3.5, another wave?of San Francisco 49ers money came pouring in yesterday driving the line as high as as -4.5 for Sunday's NFC Championship?vs. Atlanta. If you were to poll bettors at halftime of last week's?divisional games (San Francisco led 24-21 and Atlanta led 20-0) on a 49ers-Falcons line, we seriously doubt there would be many saying -4.5 road chalk. Line history courtesy of CRIS.
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